The Anti Neo-Democracy Theorist

This is the year of unexpected ups and downs in politics - First, Hillary Clinton comes back from the dead to seize the agenda in the American election, stalling the Obamanian machinery. Second, John McCain trailing in the polls in the beginning of the year emerged from the pack to beat 6 other candidates who were leading.  Third, Minister Wong’s liberalization of overseas voting was overshadowed by the sudden Mat’s escape from prison. Fourth, now the unexpected gains by the Malaysian opposition in the general election, even defeating some heavyweight ministers.

To be honest, I never predicted such an advance by the opposition, given the the media reports showed that Malaysian voters were “apathetic”, “contented” despite some riots by ethnic Indians and “more free under Badawi as compared to Dr. Mahathir.” (Sounds familiar to a certain country we know and love) One wonders three things:

1) Did Dr. Mahathir’s criticism of Abudullah over the last few years resulted in a weaken UMNO machinery that used to be so reliable?

2) If Anwar had become the PM after Dr. Mahathir, won the BN do so poorly this time? In retrospect, Anwar, when he was talking in Singapore recently, wasn’t boasting about his chances, he geninuely thought that the opposition would do better. In addition, PAS’s dropping of an Islamic state reference in its manifesto must have helped to boost the overall secular and progressive image of the opposition parties.

3) Did the DAP’s longstanding involvement in peaceful street demonstrations help change the views of Malaysian voters?

Malaysia Opposition wins big, defeating the BN in Kedah and Penang for the first time since independence. The opposition retains Kelantan and might win Selangor too. Will these results affect politics across the causeway?

Malaysian ruling coalition suffers poll debacle
Sat Mar 8, 2008 10:38pm IST

By Clarence Fernandez

KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) - Malaysia’s opposition was set on Saturday to hand the ruling coalition its biggest upset ever, claiming wins in at least four states and putting the prime minister’s political future at risk.

The multi-racial National Front coalition was almost certain to get a majority and form the government at the federal level, but the two-thirds majority in parliament it has held for most of its five-decade-long rule was looking shaky in early returns.

The Chinese-backed Democratic Action Party (DAP) won Penang, a manufacturing hub that is home to many multinational firms.

The opposition Islamist party PAS claimed shock victories in the northern heartland states of Kedah and Perak and crushed the ruling coalition in PAS’ stronghold in northeastern Kelantan state. The opposition was also gaining in Selangor state surrounding Kuala Lumpur, the state news agency Bernama said.

“This is the biggest defeat ever since our (party’s) founding 40 years ago,” Penang Chief Minister Koh Tsu Koon said. “I feel sad and surprised. I urge all National Front members to stay calm and not to take any action that could jeopardise peace and security in the state.”

The shock defeat in Penang stirred memories of the last time the ruling coalition failed to win a two-thirds majority, in 1969, when deadly race riots erupted between majority ethnic Malays and minority Chinese.

Abdullah said he accepted defeat “in some areas” and urged people to remain calm, the Star newspaper’s text message service reported.
Police officials vowed to use tough internal security laws against anyone spreading rumours and banned victory processions after the results, one of which had triggered the 1969 violence.

REFERENDUM ON ABDULLAH

“This looks like a revolution,” said Husam Musa, vice president of a hardline Islamist opposition party. “The people have risen and are united. The message to government is, ‘Enough is enough’”, he told reporters.

The poll, called before it was due in May 2009, was widely seen as a referendum on Abdullah’s rule, and Malaysians took the opportunity to administer a stinging rebuke over price rises, religious disputes and concerns over corruption .

“I think the PM will potentially have to resign,” said Bridget Welsh, a Malaysia specialist at Johns Hopkins University in the United States. “This is unprecedented. The only other time this happened was in 1969 and that’s why everybody is very nervous now because of the uncertainty.”

Works Minister Samy Vellu, chief of the Malaysian Indian Congress, one of the parties in the ruling National Front coalition, lost the seat he had held for nearly 30 years, because many Indians thought he was out of touch with their concerns.

Detained ethnic Indian activist and lawyer M. Manoharan delivered another slap in the face of the government, winning a parliamentary seat despite being held under internal-security laws for organising a major anti-government protest last year.

Chinese and Indians account for a third of the population of 26 million and many complain the government discriminates in favour of Malays when it comes to education, jobs, financial assistance and religious policy.

The final result is unlikely to be clear until early on Sunday. About 70 percent of Malaysia’s 10.9 million eligible voters had cast ballots, the country’s top poll official said.

Opposition rallies drew big crowds, especially Chinese and Indian voters unhappy with Abdullah’s Malay-dominated coalition.

“This clearly shows Malaysians want an alternative. Going forward Malays, Indians and Chinese all have to work together and make a formidable pact,” opposition figure Anwar Ibrahim told reporters.

Barisan held 90 percent of the seats in the outgoing federal parliament. Political experts had predicted Abdullah’s continued leadership could be in jeopardy if his majority fell back below 80 percent, or around 178 seats, in the new 222-seat parliament.

The economy grew 6 percent last year but inflation and a likely U.S. economic slowdown have fueled worries.

(Additional reporting by Mark Bendeich, Jalil Hamid and Liau Y-Sing)

Malaysia Ruling Coalition Suffers Losses

By VIJAY JOSHI – 1 hour ago

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia (AP) — Malaysia’s ruling coalition suffered its biggest electoral upset in nearly four decades Saturday, losing control of two state governments in a show of frustration over racial tensions, crime and corruption.

It was a humiliating defeat for the National Front coalition, which has governed Malaysia since independence in 1957, and raised questions about political future of Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

At the federal level, however, the coalition was expected to keep its control of the 222-seat Parliament. It has so far won 68 seats, according to partial results from the Electoral Commission. Final results were expected Sunday.

“We suffered a lot of losses tonight,” Abdullah’s son-in-law Khairy Jamaluddin told reporters. “But we are going to fight on. We are not going to quit. It is not the end of the world and we are going to get through this.”

For the first time since 1969, the National Front lost control of the assembly in northern Penang, the only state where ethnic Chinese are a majority.

The defeat in Penang was like “a tsunami coming in,” said Chang Ko Youn, vice president of Gerakan party, which belongs to the ruling coalition. “Nobody expected it to be so bad. I am a bit worried for the future of our party and our country.”

Malaysia’s ethnic Chinese and Indians have long complained about discrimination, particularly an affirmative action system that gives the majority Muslim Malays preference in jobs, business and education.

The program was designed 37 years ago to help the majority Malay catch up with the wealthier Chinese. But minorities complain the program continues despite rising standards of livings for Malays.

Malays make up 60 percent of Malaysia’s 27 million people, while Chinese account for 25 percent and Indians 8 percent. Each ethnicity is represented by a party in the National Front, a power-sharing arrangement designed to keep racial tensions at bay.

The coalition’s election losses underscore not only anger over racial inequities but frustration among all Malaysians over rising prices, corruption and crime. While the National Front was expected to keep its parliamentary majority, the opposition was expected to gain seats.

Such an outcome would be seen as a rebuke for Abdullah, who has lost much of the goodwill he enjoyed when he replaced longtime leader Mahathir Mohamad in 2003. Abdullah led the Front to a landslide victory in 2004, taking 91 percent of the seats in Parliament.

In Penang, the Chinese-based Democratic Action Party and its allied People’s Justice Party won a simple majority in the 40-member assembly, said Chow Kon Yeow, the top Democratic Action official in Penang.

Election officials did not release final figures, but monitors from political parties see the results before they are announced.

The People’s Justice Party also won a majority of seats in the Kedah state legislature, while the opposition Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party kept its control of the assembly in Kelantan — the only state where the opposition had already been in power.

“It’s a people’s revolution. People are waking up and sending a clear message to the government that enough is enough,” said Husam Musal, vice president of the People’s Action Party.

Associated Press writers Sean Yoong, Julia Zappei and Hrvoje Hranjski in Kuala Lumpur, and Eileen Ng in Kelantan contributed to this report.